Ryan Kirksey
The following recap contains spoilers for House of the Dragon S3E7, “The Dragon in Winter” (written by Philippa Goslett & Zenzele Price and directed by Nina Lopez-Corrado).
“And the entire power balance of this world just shifts at once in that moment.”
That is how House of the Dragon showrunner Ryan Condal describes the final moments of “The Dragon in Winter” in the Inside the Episode scenes, and it may be the most important sentence to understand what happens in this Season 3 penultimate episode.
Because for most of the recent stretch of the Dance of the Dragons, the war has seemed to come down to a relatively simple equation: Rhaenyra (Emma D’Arcy) has more dragons. Her side has more riders. Her enemies have been divided, their most important dragon seemingly lost, and their ability to challenge her control of King’s Landing has appeared increasingly limited. Therefore, the equation means she can do what she wants whenever she wants.
That equation may no longer be true.
Aegon II’s (Tom Glynn-Carney) dragon Sunfyre is alive. Ulf White (Tom Bennett) has apparently been won over by Ormund (James Norton) and his promises. Tessarion remains on the board for Daeron (Benjamin Evan Ainsworth). Helaena (Phia Saban) may finally become the dragonrider everyone has been waiting to see, if her dreams are prophetic. And, perhaps most importantly, Rhaenyra’s own side is coming apart at the seams with all the deception and infighting.
If the Greens can figure out how to become one unified side again, the balance of power in Westeros may have changed dramatically.
The episode begins with Rhaenyra waking Helaena from a dream and immediately asking her for answers. Helaena says there has still been no word from Alicent (Olivia Cooke), but the more important revelation is that Helaena may be a dreamer in a much more consequential sense than anyone has understood.
Helaena describes seeing “flashes,” and Rhaenyra desperately wants those visions to provide some certainty for her and for the future of her as ruler of the kingdom. She wants Helaena to tell her that the gods want her on the Iron Throne, that she will prevail and that her enemies will fall.
It is a revealing moment for Rhaenyra. She is the queen, but she is still looking for someone—or something—to reassure her that she is destined to win. Instead, Helaena’s visions only make the future more mysterious.
Later in the episode, Helaena sees herself giving birth to a baby boy who is immediately taken from her. Then she sees herself as a dragonrider, flying with Dreamfyre and burning people alive who seem to be trying to either attack or escape something. Finally, she sees herself in a field with her children as winter arrives. It’s an interesting set of flashes that we see, but if we have been promised that Helaena’s visions come true, how will those factor into the final nine episodes of the series?
The Dreamfyre vision may be the most consequential of all. For three seasons, Helaena has been one of the most unusual Targaryens in the story: a woman with an extraordinary connection to prophecy who has never seemed particularly interested in the power that comes with being a dragonrider. She would rather play with bugs or sew her dreams into tapestries. But if her dreams are telling her that she will eventually mount Dreamfyre, then one of the Greens’ greatest potential weapons may be about to enter the war.
At Harrenhal, Aemond (Ewan Mitchell) is increasingly isolated. He believes everyone has abandoned him, and when a seemingly sympathetic Alicent arrives, he is desperate for some connection to his family. They are intimate (muuuuuch further than last time), but this time it isn’t really Alicent.
It is actually Alys Rivers (Gayle Rankin), using the strange dreamlike world of Harrenhal to manipulate Aemond. The experience becomes so convincing that Aemond does not initially realize what is happening.
When the real Alicent eventually arrives with her “one sword” protector sent by Rhaenyra, she finds her son in a deeply unstable state. He has also become convinced that Harrenhal should be his permanent seat of power. Aemond believes Rhaenyra will ultimately fail and that the Greens can establish a new throne in the Riverlands. Oddly, Aemond isn’t really talking about retaking King’s Landing anymore. He is imagining a new center of power entirely, based on Alys’s manipulation, it would seem.
After Aemond kills her protector, Ser Adrian Redfort (Barry Sloane), because he does not trust any strangers, Alicent wants to leave. She realizes that Alys does not trust her and drugs Aemond with nightshade so she can escape Harrenhal. Her only option seems to go back down the treacherous King’s Road on her own if she wants to go back to King’s Landing, but the episode keeps us guessing on that.
Still, the episode leaves us with the bizarre question of why Aemond, a character who should be one of the most valuable weapons in the war, has spent so much of the season trapped at Harrenhal. It is the same question raised by Daemon’s (Matt Smith) extended stay there in Season 2. What is the purpose of keeping these immensely powerful dragonriders away from the battlefield for so long?
Could the answer finally become clear? Harrenhal is not simply a physical location. It is where the show is reshaping the people who will determine what happens next. Daemon and Aemond clearly still have big roles to play, but what will their time in Harrenhal mean for their next moves?
Speaking of Daemon, Rhaenyra’s supporters are hardly operating like a unified army either. Especially her husband.
We know Daemon has deceived Rhaenyra by hiding the truth about Rhaena (Phoebe Campbell) and Sheepstealer, and the role they played in Jace’s death. He explains that he was trying to protect his daughter, whom he has neglected for much of her life.
Rhaena, meanwhile, has decided that she owes Rhaenyra a debt and wants to repay it by finding and killing Vhagar. Daemon offers to help her, believing that the two of them might actually be able to bring down the enormous dragon. But when Addam of Hull (Clinton Liberty) and Baela (Bethany Antonia) spot Sheepstealer and report it back to Rhaenyra, the queen takes Addam and goes after the wild dragon.
The two arrive and learn Rhaena was the dragonrider all along, and that Daemon knew and covered it up with his ineffective burnt skull strategy. Rhaenyra learns the truth: Rhaena is the rider of Sheepstealer, the rogue dragon everyone has been searching for. Rhaenyra sees it as another example of Daemon acting independently of her authority and failing to advance her cause when she needs it most.
But that’s a problem for another time, because all of a sudden, there are four dragons in the same vicinity, and nobody is entirely sure how these vicious creatures will react. The dragons become agitated, and the situation explodes into an extraordinary battle between Syrax, Caraxes, Seasmoke and Sheepstealer.
All four dragons are threatened. All four respond as dragons would respond, of course. And that’s with violence. The battle is spectacular and (I thought) well done considering the amount of effects it requires, but strategically it is devastating for Rhaenyra. Sheepstealer survives, but limps away injured and disappears. Rhaena is now a prisoner of Rhaenyra’s, and the queen has lost yet another layer of trust with Daemon.
The irony is clear here, of course, especially as the dragonrider math starts to turn away from Rhaenyra’s favor. Rhaenyra has spent much of the last season and a half trying to gather dragonriders to her cause, only to discover that having more dragons does not necessarily mean having more control. As she discussed with her father in the early stages of Season 1, it is only an illusion that the Targaryens control dragons. They are a dangerous weapon that can not be controlled.
At Tumbleton, Lord Ormund Hightower (James Norton) is playing an entirely different game, but still one determined to bring down Rhaenyra. He wants to keep Lord Corlys Velaryon (Steve Toussaint) there because he understands that allowing his swords of Driftmark to reach King’s Landing could make the city more stable. His strategy is to let the capital continue to crumble from within, and right now there is no law or security there to protect it.
But not everyone on the Greens is completely on board with Ormund’s strategy. Daeron and Gwayne Hightower (Freddie Fox) are increasingly frustrated with Ormund’s decisions. A massive army is approaching, dragons are nearby, and Ormund still seems strangely confident. Why is this? Now we seemingly know why. Ormund has “another piece on the board.”
That piece is Ulf White, one of Rhaenyra’s newly acquired bastard dragonriders. Ulf has been mistreated, particularly by Daemon, and Ormund understands exactly how to exploit that resentment. He offers Ulf the castle at Driftmark and the title Lord of the Tides. The two toast the agreement, which now shows Ulf as a turncoat, and a particularly valuable one, considering his dragon, Silverwing
It is a great political move (and taken straight from the source text) because the Greens don’t have to defeat Rhaenyra’s dragonrider. They simply have to convince him that he is better off fighting for them, and that they can offer him more and treat him better. And Ulf’s final declaration says everything about why the strategy works: He wants Rhaenyra’s side to burn rather than laugh at him again.
The other major Green storyline is unfolding far away from Tumbleton, as Aegon II (Tom Glynn-Carney), Lord Larys Strong (Matthew Needham) and Tyland Lannister (Jefferson Hall) continue their attempt to escape to a ship to take them to Braavos. They reach the area around Maidenpool only to discover that the population is fleeing because a large army is approaching.
For Aegon, it becomes the moment when running away is no longer an option. He tells Larys and Tyland that he refuses to allow history to remember him as a king who was killed by his own brother. If he is going to die, he wants to die as a king. Tyland chooses to remain with him, but Larys recognizes that there is little he can do on the battlefield and leaves. He instead promises that Aegon will be remembered and immortalized as a king.
That leaves Aegon to make one final stand. As Rhaenyra’s army approaches, Aegon steps forward and identifies himself. The soldiers have every reason to believe that the former king is finished. His injuries have left him hopeless.
But just as Aegon makes a fiery speech announcing who he is, Sunfyre emerges from the forest. The dragon that appeared to have been lost is alive after all, and Aegon’s command of “Dracarys” unleashes a volcano of fire on the opposing army. Sunfyre attacks the approaching army, burning the soldiers as they attempt to flee.
Suddenly, the man who appeared to be the weakest and most defeated member of the Green faction has returned to the war with one of the most important weapons imaginable. And that is precisely where Condal’s description of the episode comes into play. The entire power balance of this world has shifted.
However, it’s not that simple. The problem for the Greens is that gaining dragons will not matter if they cannot figure out how to fight together, or at least unify around a common cause.
At Tumbleton, Ormund is maneuvering against his own allies while Daeron and Gwayne question his decisions. Aemond has effectively established his own power base at Harrenhal and seems more interested in creating a new throne in the Riverlands than restoring the old order. Alicent is trying to escape Harrenhal and help Helaena, while Aegon has decided to stop running altogether and is reunited with a dragon.
So while Rhaenyra’s side is fractured, the Greens are hardly a paragon of unity either. The difference is that the Greens may now have enough individual pieces on the board to make that fragmentation less important—provided someone can bring them together.
One important question remains. Who exactly are the Greens now? Is it Alicent and Helaena? Is it Aegon and Tyland? Is it Aemond and Alys? Is it Ormund and Daeron? Or can all of these competing groups somehow put aside their differences long enough to focus on the one thing they still have in common: removing Rhaenyra from the Iron Throne?
Rhaenyra faces the same problem from the opposite direction. Her family and her allies are increasingly suspicious of one another. Daemon lied to her about Rhaena. Rhaena fled with Sheepstealer. Mysaria (Sonoya Mizuno) has become entangled in the conflict between Rhaenyra and Daemon, with Rhaenyra accusing her of turning the prince against her. Even Lord Corlys is being kept away from King’s Landing (and having his finger chopped off and sent to his son?), depriving Rhaenyra of the full strength of House Velaryon.
Rhaenyra and Mysaria eventually reconcile, but the larger problem remains: Rhaenyra may have more people fighting for her, but she does not necessarily have more people she can trust. And that doesn’t even take into account the dragon math.
Earlier in the war, Rhaenyra and the Blacks appeared to have an overwhelming advantage, with roughly six dragons to one on the Green side. Episode 7 changes that calculation dramatically. Rhaenyra has apparently lost a dragon in Silverwing, although Sheepstealer could potentially return to her cause. The Greens, meanwhile, now have Sunfyre back in play, Ulf and Silverwing on their side, and Tessarion still waiting with Daeron. Helaena’s visions even raise the possibility that Dreamfyre could become another weapon.
“The Dragon in Winter” therefore does more than deliver a never-before-seen spectacular dragon battle or reveal that Sunfyre survived. It fundamentally changes the possibilities for the next stage of the conflict. The advantage Rhaenyra once possessed was based largely on numbers, but the episode demonstrates that dragons cannot be treated like pieces on a battlefield. They are attached to riders, and those riders have ambitions, grudges, loyalties and fears of their own.
Rhaenyra has learned that lesson the hard way with Daemon and Rhaena. The Greens are about to learn whether they can take advantage of it with Ulf. And after Sunfyre’s return, the appearance of Silverwing on the Green side and the possibility of Helaena finally taking to the skies with Dreamfyre, the most important question heading into the Season 3 finale may no longer be whether Rhaenyra has enough dragons to win.
It may be whether she can keep the dragons and allies she still has. One dragon has seemingly been turned. What will happen next?
