Trey Lance

School: North Dakota State

Size: 6’4/ 227lbs.

There is both a lot to like about Trey Lance and a lot to be desired. As of right now, he is my QB 5 In this draft class. Keep reading for an in-depth breakdown of a very intriguing prospect.

Trey Lance Attributes:

Rated from 1-10

Mechanics: 7

Anticipation: 5

Pocket Awareness/Presence: 6

Progression with Reads: 5

Football IQ: 6

Arm Power: 9

Accuracy (Ball Placement): 7

Football Attitude, Aggressiveness and Awareness: 9

Ball Security: 10

Footwork: 7

Mobility: 9

Other Key Observations:

Good Ball Placement: Puts it where only the defender can get it, right in stride, or the right spot that allows the receiver to maximize their YAC.

Bad Ball Placement: Receivers has to stop, layout unnecessarily, or is an unintended uncatchable ball (or not a situational throw away)

Throwing a Receiver Open: Was covered perfectly by the defender and the QB throws it to the only possible spot where the completion can happen.

Check Down: It’s easier to tell you what I don’t count here. Nothing that is designed that way. No screens. If it looks like any blocking is set up for the short pass I do NOT count it, QB has to look for a receiver downfield first and then dump it short.

Notable Trey Lance Stats:

Snaps Watched: 96

Good Ball Placement: 50

Bad Ball Placement: 10

INTs: 0 in his CAREER

TDs off Blown Coverages: 2

Throwing A WR Open: 6

Stood in the pocket and took a hit and delivered a good pass:5

Checkdowns: 14

Looked Off Defenders: 2

Evaded/ Broken Tackles: 27

COLLEGE STATS:

2019: 192-287/ 66.9%/ 2,786 yards/ 28 TD’s

Rushing: 1,100 Yards/ 14 TDs

***He basically only played one year.

OVERALL: 70 /100 This number is awarded both by average from the football skills section and my overall opinion of his film.

TREY LANCE FILM BREAKDOWN

Arm Talent

Great arm strength

Can throw with heat in tight windows

Gets nice air under his deep balls- Sometimes he puts too much on it but he’s definitely capable of beautiful deep balls

Needs to be more consistent throwing on the run: He can skip the ball off the ground at times, or he throws high

He’s got great velocity on deep throws

Some of his deep balls were Russel Wilson-esque

He is capable of some beautiful throws on the run, just inconsistent

He has the arm to make any throw in the NFL

Overall accuracy is good, only a handful of really bad throws

He can make accurate throws outside the numbers with good velocity

Running Ability

Has great speed

A very elusive runner who also can run through arm tackles

Very nice burst as a runner

Protects ball very nicely as a runner

A gifted runner who gets small in the hole has a great juke move, and always keeps his legs churning

Can extend plays and makes some great plays while doing so

Awesome runner near the goal line

He can make multiple defenders miss in the hole

Trey Lance’s agility is off the hook

Trey Lance has great vision as a runner

He’s also a physical runner who will lower his shoulder and knock defenders backward

His rushing floor will be up there with the best QB rushers in the league if he gets a chance to start

Pocket Awareness

Can step up in the pocket and deliver some nice downfield throws

Needs to work on identifying where pressure is coming from and which way to slide or escape to buy more time and not take a major loss

He does a good job of not becoming impatient when there is no pressure. He takes his time if possible and allows the play to develop

He is capable of athletic plays in the pocket

He does have a tendency to sometimes roll right into pressure. It showed up multiple times in his 2019 tape

Football IQ

Can get locked into the first read: It showed up quite a bit

If 1st read is not there his instinct is to run, especially if he feels a lot of pressure

Will need a lot of work to be able to be efficient from the pocket

His reads have to become much quicker

When he takes downfield shots it’s always a good decision and his intended WR is in man

Should push the ball downfield more often

Knows when he has a ton of yards in front of him on foot and almost always takes those yards

Has to get better at QB play under pressure

Can be slow to see the play develop sometimes: Anticipation will be a work in progress

Mechanics

Has a quick release

Has a little tweaking he can do with his mechanics in the pocket, like shortening the distance between his feet

Must to display better mechanics on the run more consistently- He absolutely can be a good passer on the run and IS sometimes already

He has nice active feet in the pocket and is not caught flat-footed

Generates great power behind his throws using his body to turn his throwing arm into a whip.

He does do a good job squaring up his shoulders to his target on the run

Overall- He definitely knows proper mechanics and how to use them, just has to clean a few things up

Fantasy Upside and Summary:

He does have some great arm talent but lacks a lot of football IQ and should be considered something of a project and a player who will need some time to develop.

Lance is a one-read-and-run player most of the time. What I mean is that he locks onto one man usually and runs if it’s not there. He wasn’t running a pro-style offense at North Dakota State. They ran a super conservative offense that was meant to kill time. I don’t think they wanted him to take many risks. He would probably be best suited on a team that currently runs, or tailors their offense to run a lot of RPO’s. That will maximize his rushing efforts and simplify the passing game.

If he progresses with his football IQ and doesn’t rely only on his rushing ability, he can be a great fantasy asset. I believe it’s a tall order though, currently. I do love his arm strength, and his accuracy isn’t terrible by any means.

Should everything goes right for him he has the physical skills to be a top 12 QB in fantasy, especially with his rushing ability. If you have a strong roster who can handle a gamble, I would certainly consider taking him. Definitely worth the risk if he falls late into the first round.

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